Bougainville 2025 election: What's at stake?

The dominant issue going into the next election in Bougainville is not much different from the last election five years ago.

The autonomous Papua New Guinea region goes to the polls on September 4.

In 2020, there were strong expectations Bougainville would soon be independent, given the result of an overwhelming referendum for independence just months earlier.

That hasn't happened yet, and Port Moresby has yet to concede much ground.

Most recently, at Burnham in Christchurch in June, little progress was made, as Massey University academic Anna Powles points out.

"Papua New Guinean Prime Minister James Marape referred to Burnham as a spiritual home of the Bougainville peace process. And yet, on the other hand, you have the Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama saying very clearly that independence was non-negotiable, and setting out a number of terms, including the fact that Bougainville was to become independent by the 1st of September 2027," the security analyst said.

There are seven people standing for the presidency, including long-time MP in the PNG national parliament, Joe Lera.

He said everyone wants independence, but he wants to see a more conciliatory tone from the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG).

"Now, what the current government is doing is they are going outside the [Bougainville] Peace Agreement, and they are trying to shortcut based on the [referendum] result. But the Peace Agreement does not say independence will be given to us based on the result," Lera said.

"What it says is, after we know the result, the two governments must continue to dialogue, consult each other and find ways of how to improve the economy, the law and order issues, the development issues. When we fix those, the nation-building pillars, we can then apply for the ratification to take place."

However, Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama has no intention of deviating from the path he has been following.

"It is a national constitution guarantee or the framework of the Bougainville Peace Agreement, and that is how I'm saying to them, whether we come into consultation, we have different views. At least it is the constitutional guaranteed process set in by the National Constitution."

Achieving sovereignty as soon as possible is the driving force for the man who has been leading Bougainville's campaign, the Independence Implementation Minister Ezekiel Masatt.

He said the signing of the Melanesian Agreement at Burnham was pivotal.

"We must obtain political independence in order to have some sovereign powers, in order to make some strategic economic decisions," he said.

"Now, given the Melanesian Agreement where Bougainville can achieve some sovereign powers I think that is a great start in the right direction."

Masatt is standing in the Tonsu electorate in North Bougainville.

Former army officer Thomas Raivet is running for a second time. He is confident that he and his New Bougainville Party colleagues, Nick Peniai and Joe Lera, can be a formidable presence given the impact of preference votes.

"We believe that we can make a difference, because for the last five years, nothing has really happened here and and maybe five years ago, and maybe you go back 10 years, nothing has really happened for us," Raivet said.

Sam Kauona, who once led the Bougainville Revolutionary Army alongside Ishmael Toroama, is another presidential candidate.

He has run before but says this time he will win because of the Toroama governmment's failure to bring independence.

"Because the government, for the last five years, did not achieve what Bougainvilleans, what we, wanted. They were concentrating on one option only. That's why it wasted the last five years, and we did not achieve anything."

The vote in Bougainville is being held over just one day for the first time, with results expected within a week.

RNZ